Updated March 31, 2026Post-SCOTUS

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Viewing: Canada Perspective

How tariffs affect Canadian businesses and consumers

⚡ This Week

Trump-Xi summit moves to May 14-15 • EU approves trade deal with safeguards • China launches counter-probes

The EU Said Yes — With a Safety Net. Now the Clock Starts on Three Fronts.

The EU Parliament voted 417-154-71 on March 26 to approve the Turnberry deal — but the safeguards they attached may matter more than the vote itself. Three clauses effectively Trump-proof the agreement: a sunrise clause that won't activate EU tariff cuts until the US delivers on its Turnberry commitments, a sunset clause that kills the deal on March 31, 2028 without renewal, and a suspension clause that freezes everything if Washington imposes new tariffs. MEPs also explicitly demanded the US remove the 50% steel derivative duties slapped on after Turnberry was signed. The trilogue with member states starts April 13. The ball is now in Washington's court.

The CAPE refund system is progressing unevenly — and the bottleneck is exactly where you'd expect. The claim portal is 73% ready, the review and liquidation engine is 80% complete, but mass processing — the component that actually calculates what 333,000 importers are owed — is only 45% done. Over 3,000 companies have now filed lawsuits at CIT, including Costco and FedEx. The March 31 hearing will be critical for setting a realistic timeline. Most of the $166B in refunds probably won't start flowing until May at the earliest.

Meanwhile, a quieter but significant development: Commerce opened the Section 232 auto parts inclusions window for April 1-14, accepting requests to expand the list of parts facing 25% tariffs. For Canadian and Mexican parts manufacturers, this is the one to watch — new inclusions could hit cross-border supply chains by summer. Three major Section 301 milestones converge in late April and May: public comments due April 15, forced labor hearings April 28, overcapacity hearings May 5. Together they shape the permanent tariff architecture designed to replace Section 122 when it expires July 24. Penn Wharton confirms the post-SCOTUS effective tariff rate at 7.7% — down from 10.3% under IEEPA — but China's rate ticked up to 33.9%.

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General estimates as of March 31, 2026. Not legal/financial advice.

⚖️

SCOTUS Ruling — February 20, 2026 · Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump

The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. All IEEPA tariffs were terminated Feb 24, 2026. The administration pivoted to a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (15% announced Feb 21 but NO formal proclamation issued as of Mar 24 — rate remains 10%; expires Jul 24, 2026). CUSMA-compliant goods are exempt. Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber are unaffected by the ruling. Section 122 is under legal challenge (24-state lawsuit + Burlap and Barrel suit filed Mar 5–9; no injunction as of Mar 24; suits argue Section 122 misapplied to trade deficits and violates nondelegation doctrine). Refund litigation for approximately $166 billion in collected IEEPA duties is ongoing — 53M entries, 333K importers affected. CAPE system components as of Mar 19: Portal 73%, Mass Processing 45% (bottleneck), Review 80%, Refund 63%. Over 3,000 lawsuits filed at CIT. Next hearing Mar 31. Target operational mid-April 2026.

📜 How We Got Here

The Escalation Timeline

14 months of tariff escalation, deals and legal battles. Scroll or tap any event for details.

📜Feb 1, 2025

IEEPA Tariffs Signed

🔥Mar 4, 2025

IEEPA Tariffs Take Effect

🍷Mar 25, 2025

Ontario Bans US Alcohol

💥Apr 2, 2025

"Liberation Day" Tariffs

🚗Apr 3, 2025

Auto Tariffs Take Effect

🐉May 2025

Section 301 Expansion on China

🏗️Jun 2025

Steel & Aluminum Hit 50%

🤝Jun 2025

US-China Deal — Pause at ~20%

🤝Jul 2025

EU-US Framework Deal

📈Aug 2025

IEEPA Escalated to 35% on Canada

🚘Sep 2025

Japan Auto Deal — 15%

🕊️Sep 2025

Canada Drops Most Counter-Tariffs

🪵Oct 2025

Lumber & Derivative Tariffs

❄️Oct 2025

Canada-US Talks Suspended

🔩Dec 2025

Steel Derivatives — 407 Products at 50%

⚙️Dec 2025

China Rare Earth Export Ban

⚖️Feb 20, 2026

SCOTUS Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs

🔄Feb 24, 2026

Section 122 Replaces IEEPA

📋Mar 5–9, 2026

Legal Challenges Filed

🍁Mar 6, 2026

Canada-US Talks Resume After 4-Month Freeze

🔍Mar 11–12, 2026

Section 301 Probes — 76 Countries

🤝Mar 15–16, 2026

Bessent-He Paris Talks

📅Mar 16, 2026

Trump Requests Delay of Beijing Summit

🍁Mar 18, 2026

USTR: Canada Lagging Behind Mexico

🗳️Mar 19, 2026

EU Parliament Committee Approves Deal with Safeguards

🗳️Mar 26, 2026

EU Parliament Approves Turnberry Deal 417-154-71

🇨🇳Mar 26, 2026

Trump-Xi Summit Confirmed for May 14–15

🔍Mar 27, 2026

China Launches Counter-Probes Into US Trade Practices

📅 Dates to Watch

What's Coming Next

Key deadlines that will reshape the tariff landscape. Subscribe so you don't miss them.

🗳️

Mar 26, 2026Critical deadline

EU Parliament Approved Turnberry Deal (417-154-71)

Parliament approved with strict safeguards: sunset clause (Mar 31, 2028), sunrise clause (tariff preferences only activate when US fulfills Turnberry commitments), and immediate suspension if new tariffs imposed. MEPs demand US remove 50% steel derivative duties. Trilogue with member states begins Apr 13. Not yet final.

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Mar 31, 2026Coming up

CIT CAPE Refund Status Hearing

Court of International Trade reviews CAPE refund system progress. Component status as of Mar 19: Portal 73%, Mass Processing 45% (bottleneck), Review 80%, Refund 63%. Over 3,000 lawsuits filed.

🤝

May 14–15, 2026Coming up

Trump-Xi Beijing Summit (Confirmed)

Rescheduled from Mar 31–Apr 2 due to Iran war. White House confirmed May 14–15 on March 26. Xi and Peng Liyuan to make reciprocal Washington visit later in 2026. Deliverables narrowed to commercial purchases (soybeans, energy).

🚗

Apr 1-14, 2026Coming up

Section 232 Auto Parts Inclusions Window

Commerce accepting requests to add new auto parts to 25% Sec 232 scope. Quarterly process (next window: July). CUSMA-compliant parts exempt except non-US content. Submissions to AutoInclusions@trade.gov.

🇪🇺

Apr 13, 2026Coming up

EU-Member States Trilogue on Turnberry Deal

First negotiation between European Parliament and EU Council (member states) on final deal text including safeguard clauses. Must reach agreement before deal can take effect.

🔍

Apr 15, 2026Coming up

Section 301 Public Comments Due

USTR launched probes Mar 11–12 on 76 economies (16 overcapacity, 60 forced labor). Public hearings: forced labor Apr 28, overcapacity May 5. Target completion Jul 24, 2026.

💰

Late Apr 2026Coming up

$166B+ IEEPA Refund Portal Launch

CIT expanded refund scope Mar 27 to include finally liquidated entries — all IEEPA entries now eligible. CAPE system as of Mar 19: Portal 73%, Mass Processing 45% (bottleneck), Review 80%, Refund 63%. 53M entries, 333K importers. Over 3,000 lawsuits filed. Register for ACH refunds now — refunds include interest.

📋

Apr 28, 2026Coming up

Section 301 Hearing — Forced Labor

Public hearing on USTR's forced labor investigation covering 60 economies. Part of the broader Section 301 probes launched Mar 11–12.

📋

May 5, 2026On the horizon

Section 301 Hearing — Overcapacity

Public hearing on USTR's manufacturing overcapacity investigation covering 16 economies including China, EU, Mexico and Japan.

📋

Jul 1, 2026On the horizon

CUSMA Trilateral Review

Full US-Canada-Mexico review. US-Mexico bilateral talks advancing (Greer-Ebrard ministerial Mar 18; focus: rules of origin, supply chain gaps, limiting Chinese inputs). Canada-US talks resumed Mar 6 but USTR stated Mar 18 Canada is lagging behind Mexico.

✈️

Jul 2026On the horizon

Boeing-Airbus Truce Expires

EU-US aircraft tariff truce. If not renewed, tariffs resume on both sides. Framework deal status matters here.

⏰

Jul 24, 2026Critical deadline

Section 122 Expires / Section 301 Target

150-day statutory limit. 24-state lawsuit + private suits (including Burlap and Barrel, Mar 9) filed at CIT; no injunction granted; suits argue Section 122 misapplied to trade deficits and violates nondelegation doctrine. Also the target date for Section 301 investigation completion — designed to replace Section 122 with permanent, country-specific tariffs.

Signature Charts

The Tariff Story, Visualized

Original data visualizations you won't find anywhere else. Updated weekly.

🛒 Basket of Tariffs™

What Canadians Pay Extra — 10 familiar items, one number.

You're shopping in Canada. These are the price increases you see on shelves and sticker prices.

+26.5%

Tariff Premium

Tariff Premium (%)

Total basket: $225.00 → $284.56 — $59.56 more for the same 10 items. Switch to $ view to see absolute prices.

🔮 Scenario Modeler

What Happens Next?

Four scenarios based on current policy trajectories, legal proceedings and statutory deadlines. Each projection shows its basis and methodology.

NowCurrent State

Section 122 at 10%, SCOTUS ruling in effect, Sec 232 tariffs unchanged, Section 301 probes underway but no outcomes yet.

Why this scenario

This is not a projection — it reflects the tariff rates currently in effect as of the last site update.

Household Cost

$880/mo

CUSMA Exemption

~85%

Sec 122 Rate

10%

Sec 232 Steel

50%

IEEPA Refunds

$166B pending

Outlook

Stable but time-limited

How we calculated (Canada)

Yale Budget Lab household model adapted for post-SCOTUS Section 122 rates. CUSMA exemption rate from CBSA trade statistics.

Projections based on current policy trajectories, statutory deadlines and published economic models (Yale Budget Lab, Penn Wharton, Tax Foundation, ING). Actual outcomes depend on legislative, judicial and diplomatic developments. Not financial advice.

🏭 Sector Explorer

Tariff Rates by Industry

Pick a sector to see how tariffs compare across all four regions. Use the product search above for specific items.

🏗️

Steel & Aluminum

Includes: rebar, beams, sheet metal, foil, cans, gutters, wiring, HVAC ductwork

CanadaYou

50%

Sec 232No CUSMA exemption

United States

50%

Sec 232Global — no trade agreement exemptions

European Union

50%

Sec 232Not covered by framework deal. EU retaliates at 25%

Asia-Pacific

50%

Sec 232 + 301China stacks Sec 301 on top. Japan, Korea at 50% too

Consumer Impact

Adds $1,500–3,000 to a new home. Every construction project, appliance and vehicle is affected.

What to Watch

Sec 232 has no expiry. No deal has exempted metals.

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Canada

How Do Tariffs Affect Me?

Pick a category to see real cost impacts.

🚗

Buying a Car

Pickup truck (cross-border built)

+$5,000–$8,000▾

Toyota RAV4 / Lexus (built in Ontario)

+$3,000–$7,000▾

Jeep (various assembly locations)

+$2,000–$6,000▾

Used vehicles

+$1,500–$3,000▾

Car repairs & insurance

+5–11%/year▾

💡 Bottom Line

Average new vehicle ~$6,000 more (JD Power). Check where your model is assembled — vehicles built entirely within one country are least affected.

Why CUSMA Compliance Matters More Than Ever

With ~85% of Canadian exports now claiming CUSMA exemption (up from ~55% pre-tariffs), the trade agreement has become the single most important shield for Canadian exporters. CUSMA-compliant goods are exempt from the new Section 122 tariffs and were exempt from IEEPA tariffs. However, Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber have no CUSMA exemption. Canada-US bilateral trade talks resumed March 6, 2026 (LeBlanc-Greer meeting in Washington) after a four-month suspension, but USTR Greer stated March 18 that Canada is lagging behind Mexico in USMCA negotiations. No formal Canadian negotiation process has been announced. The CUSMA review on July 1, 2026 will be among the most consequential trade negotiations in decades.

Full Reference

Tariff Data

Every active measure. Searchable and sortable.

US Tariffs on Canadian Exports

What Canadian goods face entering the US

Sector	Rate	Authority	CUSMA	Effective	Details
Steel	50%	Sec 232	✗	Jun '25	No CUSMA exemption. All steel products.
Aluminum	50%	Sec 232	✗	Jun '25	Includes derivative products (cans, foil, extrusions).
Automobiles	25%	Sec 232	✓	Apr '25	US-content of CUSMA vehicles exempt. Lexus RX/NX, RAV4 affected.
Auto Parts	25%	Sec 232	✓	May '25	Parts cross borders multiple times during assembly.
Softwood Lumber	10%	Sec 232	✗	Oct '25	On top of existing AD/CVD duties (8–20%). No CUSMA exemption.
Cabinets & Vanities	25%	Sec 232	✗	Oct '25	50% increase delayed to Jan 2027.
Furniture	25%	Sec 232	✗	Oct '25	30% increase delayed to Jan 2027.
Heavy-Duty Vehicles	25%	Sec 232	✓	Nov '25	Buses 10%. CUSMA US content exempt.
Steel Derivatives	50%	Sec 232	✗	Aug '25	407 products added Aug 2025. 50% on metal content. Doors, windows, fasteners, bridges, wind towers.
Non-CUSMA Goods	10%	Sec 122	✓	Feb '26	Post-SCOTUS replacement. 15% announced Feb 21 but NO formal proclamation issued as of Mar 24 — rate remains 10%. Expires Jul 24, 2026. Under legal challenge (24-state lawsuit + Burlap and Barrel suit filed Mar 5–9; no injunction granted; suits argue misapplication to trade deficits and nondelegation). CUSMA exempt.
Energy & Potash	10%	Sec 122	✓	Feb '26	CUSMA-compliant shipments exempt. Expires Jul 24, 2026.

Last verified: March 31, 2026

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Not legal/financial advice · March 31, 2026 · Canadian editorial: TariffWars.ca →