{"updated":"May 13, 2026","headline":"CIT Rules Section 122 Tariffs Unlawful; Federal Circuit Pauses Enforcement; EU Trade Deal at Risk","intensity":"normal","keyDates":[{"date":"May 19, 2026","label":"EU-US Trade Negotiation Round","urgency":"soon"},{"date":"May 24, 2026","label":"EU-Parliament negotiation round on EU-US tariff deal finalization","urgency":"soon"},{"date":"Jul 1, 2026","label":"USMCA Joint Review due","urgency":"watch"},{"date":"Jul 4, 2026","label":"EU-US Trade Deal Final Compliance Deadline (Trump-announced)","urgency":"critical"},{"date":"Jul 5, 2026","label":"USTR Section 301 China Comment Deadline (List 1)","urgency":"critical"},{"date":"Jul 24, 2026","label":"Section 122 Temporary Tariff Expires (150-day clock from Feb 24, 2026)","urgency":"critical"},{"date":"Jul 31, 2026","label":"Large pharma Section 232 tariffs take effect","urgency":"critical"},{"date":"Sep 29, 2026","label":"Small pharma Section 232 tariffs take effect","urgency":"critical"}],"recentDevelopments":[{"date":"May 12, 2026","title":"Federal Circuit Issues Administrative Stay on CIT Section 122 Ruling","detail":"US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued a brief administrative stay pausing enforcement of the CIT's May 7 ruling while the government's appeal proceeds. Expedited briefing schedule set — plaintiffs must respond within one week. Section 122 tariff collection resumes pending final appellate decision.","type":"legal"},{"date":"May 7, 2026","title":"CIT Rules Section 122 Tariffs Unlawful","detail":"Divided 2-1 CIT panel ruled Trump's 10% Section 122 global tariffs unlawful in State of Washington et al. v. Trump. Majority held Section 122 applies only to genuine balance-of-payments crises, not trade deficits. Court permanently enjoined collection and ordered refunds with interest — but only for the three named plaintiffs. No universal injunction.","type":"legal"},{"date":"May 2, 2026","title":"China Issues Anti-Sanctions Prohibition Order No. 21","detail":"MOFCOM Announcement No. 21 prohibits Chinese entities from recognizing, enforcing or complying with US sanctions. Creates direct legal conflict forcing multinationals to choose compliance regimes.","type":"retaliation"},{"date":"May 1, 2026","title":"EU-Mercosur Interim Trade Agreement Takes Effect","detail":"Provisional application begins, liberalizing 90%+ of trade between EU and Mercosur countries. EU gains preferential access to previously protected markets. Creates new competitive pressure on US-EU trade dynamics.","type":"deal"},{"date":"May 1, 2026","title":"Trump Threatens 25% EU Auto Tariffs","detail":"President announces plan to increase European vehicle tariffs to 25%, directly breaching July 2025 Turnberry Agreement ceiling of 15%. Move threatens foundation of EU-US framework agreement.","type":"escalation"},{"date":"Apr 28, 2026","title":"USTR Section 301 Public Hearings Complete","detail":"Forced labor hearings April 28-29 concluded with testimony on 60 economies. Both investigations target completion by July 24 to replace Section 122 with permanent country-specific tariffs.","type":"pivot"},{"date":"Apr 20, 2026","title":"CAPE Refund Portal Launches","detail":"CBP launched CAPE (Customs Automated Processing Environment) Phase 1 for IEEPA tariff refunds. All refunds electronic ACH only. Early reports show 15% denial rate. ~82% of $166B collected eligible for Phase 1.","type":"pivot"},{"date":"Apr 8, 2026","title":"Canada Extends Remission Order","detail":"Canada Gazette published second-year remission order effective April 9, 2026 through April 8, 2027. Claims must be filed within two years of importation date.","type":"de_escalation"},{"date":"Apr 6, 2026","title":"Restructured Metals & Pharma Tariffs Take Effect","detail":"Metals restructured to 50%/25%/15% tiers on full customs value. Pharma: 100% baseline with tiered exceptions (15% EU/Japan/Korea/Switzerland, 10% UK, 20% onshoring, 0% MFN pricing). Generics explicitly exempted.","type":"pivot"},{"date":"Mar 26, 2026","title":"EU Parliament Approves Turnberry Deal 417-154-71","detail":"European Parliament voted 417-154-71 to advance the US-EU trade deal with sunrise, sunset (March 31, 2028), and suspension clauses. Trilogue with member states begins April 13. Not yet final.","type":"deal"}],"rates":{"section122":{"rate":10,"status":"under appeal — Federal Circuit stay issued May 12, 2026","expires":"2026-07-24"},"steel232":{"rate":50,"cusmaExempt":false,"notes":"Global; no trade agreement exemptions"},"aluminum232":{"rate":50,"cusmaExempt":false,"notes":"Global; includes derivatives"},"autos232":{"rate":25,"cusmaExempt":true,"notes":"US-content exempt for CUSMA; Japan reduced to 15% via deal"},"euFramework":{"rate":15,"notes":"Turnberry deal; EU Parliament approved Mar 26, sunrise/sunset clauses; not yet final"},"chinaGeneral":{"rate":20,"notes":"10% fentanyl + 10% reciprocal; higher rates paused, extended Nov 2026"}},"source":"tariffcharts.com"}