Updated June 10, 2026Post-SCOTUS

TariffCharts.com

Covering:Canada·United States·European Union·Asia-Pacific
Section 301 forced labor tariffs proposed: 10% on Canada, 12.5% on China; CUSMA carve-out shields ~88% of Canadian exports·Section 122 baseline tariff expires July 24; Section 301 designed as permanent replacement via forced labor authority·Brazil faces separate 25% Section 301 tariff; stacking risk with 12.5% forced labor rate creates uncertainty·CUSMA renewal talks advance; Canada seeks relief on steel/aluminum/auto tariffs; July 1 review deadline approaches
$900B+
Annual Two-Way Trade
US-Canada goods & services
~88%
CUSMA Exemption Rate
est. share of Canadian goods CUSMA-compliant (Govt of Canada, Apr 2026)
~$1,300–$1,700/yr
Est. Cost to Cdn Households
Yale Budget Lab / BoC models, Apr 2026; $1,300 base + ~$300–$400 Sec 232 auto tariff for car-owning households
~$166B
IEEPA Refunds Owed
53M entries, 333K importers; CAPE Phase 1 portal live Apr 20, 2026 — file at ACE portal now
🛒 Basket of Tariffs™

What Canadians Pay Extra

Same 10 everyday items — before and after tariffs
+26.5%
Tariff Premium
Before tariffs
$225.00
→
After tariffs
$284.56
+$59.56
more for same basket
🚰Kitchen Faucet (US)+$27.00
🛞Brake Pad Set+$9.20
📬Steel Mailbox (US)+$6.80
+7 more items
Editor's Note
📝 Editor's NoteWeek of June 10, 2026

The Section 301 Rebuild: Trump's New Legal Arsenal for a Permanent Tariff Regime

After SCOTUS struck down his emergency tariff powers in February, Trump is methodically reconstructing a durable tariff system using Section 301 investigations that have no legal duration limits—making them potentially permanent in ways the previous IEEPA tariffs were not. The June 2 announcement of 10–12.5% forced labor tariffs on 60 countries represents the cornerstone of this rebuild, designed to replace Section 122 when it expires July 24. Unlike the temporary emergency authorities, Section 301 tariffs can remain in place indefinitely, creating a more legally durable foundation for Trump's trade agenda.

The forced labor tariff proposal targets 60 countries but is designed to rebuild the tariff wall the Supreme Court dismantled—using a public-health rationale rather than emergency powers. Canada's carve-out for CUSMA-compliant goods shields ~88% of exports, making the political pain manageable while signaling that exemptions can be negotiated away during CUSMA renewal talks. Three separate Section 301 tracks are now active: forced labor (hearing July 7), excess manufacturing capacity (results late 2026), and the new U.S.-China Board of Trade (public comment through July 10).

Analysts expect further Section 301 investigations on excess capacity and other trade practices by late 2026, with tariff announcements timed to pressure negotiation partners ahead of trade talks. The Brazil case—facing a separate 25% Section 301 tariff—illustrates how stacking risks create uncertainty for businesses trying to model costs. If both the 25% and 12.5% forced labor rates finalize, companies need clarity on which applies. This legal complexity is intentional, creating leverage for bilateral negotiations while establishing a permanent tariff architecture that future administrations will find difficult to dismantle.

TariffCharts.com — Independent analysisUpdated weekly with each site refresh
Legal Status
⚖️
SCOTUS Ruling — February 20, 2026 · Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump
The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. All IEEPA tariffs were terminated Feb 24, 2026. The administration pivoted to a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (15% announced Feb 21 but no formal proclamation was ever issued — rate remains 10%; expires Jul 24, 2026). CUSMA-compliant goods are exempt. Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber are unaffected by the ruling. CIT ruled 2-1 on May 7, 2026 that Section 122 tariffs are unlawful (Oregon v. United States and Burlap and Barrel v. United States) — court held Section 122 requires specific historical balance-of-payments measures, not modern trade deficit metrics. Permanent injunction limited to State of Washington, Burlap and Barrel Inc., and Basic Fun Inc. CAFC issued administrative stay May 12; tariff collection continues pending appeal. Section 122 expires July 24, 2026 (150-day statutory limit) unless extended by Congress. USTR signaled Section 301 forced labor tariffs (10–12.5%) will replace Section 122 upon expiry. Refund processing for approximately $166 billion in IEEPA duties: 53M entries, 333K importers affected; ~$35.5B entered CAPE portal as of May 12; $20.6B formally approved by May 27 (CBP processing errors acknowledged) — file CAPE Declaration in ACE portal now. Over 3,000 lawsuits filed at CIT. 180-day protest deadline for earliest IEEPA entries: ~June 13, 2026.
Legal Docket
Scenarios
🔮 Scenario Modeler
Live ForecastUpdated weekly

What Happens Next?

Four scenarios based on current policy trajectories, legal proceedings and statutory deadlines. Each projection shows its basis and methodology.

NowCurrent State

Section 122 at 10%, SCOTUS ruling in effect, Sec 232 metals overhaul effective Apr 6, pharma tariffs announced, CAPE portal live Apr 20, Section 301 probes underway.

Why this scenario
This is not a projection — it reflects the tariff rates currently in effect as of the last site update.
Probability
10%
Section 122 auto-expires July 24 and the administration shows no intent to preserve current rates unchanged.
Last updated: June 10, 2026
Household Cost
~$1,300/yr
CUSMA Exemption
~88%
Sec 122 Rate
10%
Sec 232 Steel
50%
IEEPA Refunds
$166B pending
Outlook
Stable but time-limited
How we calculated (Canada)
Yale Budget Lab household model adapted for post-SCOTUS Section 122 rates. CUSMA exemption rate from CBSA trade statistics.
Projections based on current policy trajectories, statutory deadlines and published economic models (Yale Budget Lab, Penn Wharton, Tax Foundation, ING). Actual outcomes depend on legislative, judicial and diplomatic developments. Not financial advice.
Probability Trend
Current State
Expires Jul 24
Sec 301 Replaces
Lawsuit Wins
Key Dates
📅 Dates to Watch

What's Coming Next

Key deadlines that will reshape the tariff landscape. Subscribe so you don't miss them.

📋
Jun 22, 2026Critical deadline
Deadline to request appearance at public hearing on Brazil Section 301 tariffs
Companies affected by proposed 25% Brazil tariffs must file to testify; hearing July 6
📋
Jun 22, 2026Critical deadline
Deadline to request appearance at public hearing on Forced Labor Section 301 tariffs (60 countries)
Companies with forced labor tariff exposure must file to testify; hearing July 7
📋
Jul 1, 2026Critical deadline
Deadline for written comments on Brazil Section 301 proposed tariffs
Last day to submit formal comments on 25% Brazil tariff proposal; USTR will finalize determination after review
📋
Jul 6, 2026Critical deadline
Deadline for written comments on Forced Labor Section 301 proposed tariffs (60 countries)
Final day for written comments on 10–12.5% forced labor tariffs; USTR will finalize determination after review
📋
Jul 6, 2026Critical deadline
Public hearing on Brazil Section 301 proposed tariffs
Stakeholder testimony on Brazil tariff proposal; opportunity to challenge 25% rate and seek exclusions
📋
Jul 7, 2026Critical deadline
Public hearing on Forced Labor Section 301 proposed tariffs (60 countries)
Stakeholder testimony on forced labor investigation; critical forum for tariff rate challenges and product exclusion requests
📋
Jul 10, 2026Critical deadline
Deadline for public comments on U.S.–China Board of Trade structure and tariff modification scope
Final day to submit input on which goods could benefit from bilateral tariff reductions; affects future U.S.–China trade deal terms
⏰
Jul 24, 2026Critical deadline
Section 122 global 10% tariff expires (150 days from Feb. 24, 2026)
Critical deadline—Section 122 tariffs end unless Congress extends; administration planning Section 301 forced labor tariffs to replace; potential gap if finalization delayed
📋
Jul 27, 2026Critical deadline
Deadline for rebuttal comments on U.S.–China Board of Trade public comments
Final opportunity for USTR and trade partners to respond to public comment; shapes Board of Trade operational framework
💊
Jul 31, 2026Critical deadline
Large pharmaceutical companies' Section 232 tariffs take effect (100% base, 15% allied partners)
Major price increases on patented drugs for US consumers unless companies achieve MFN pricing or onshoring agreements.
📋
Aug 22, 2026Critical deadline
Section 301 China Review Comment Deadline (August 23, 2018 Action)
Final deadline for industry input on continuation of 2018 Section 301 tariffs affecting ~$34B in strategic sector goods
📋
Aug 23, 2026Critical deadline
Section 301 China Tariffs Four-Year Review Expiration (Second Set)
USTR four-year review of second set of China Section 301 tariffs from August 23, 2018; same continuation/expiration risk as July 6 set
💊
Sep 29, 2026Critical deadline
Small pharmaceutical companies' Section 232 tariffs take effect (100% base, 15% allied partners)
Final tranche of pharma tariffs activate; smaller firms and generics manufacturers face compliance deadline.
🍁
Oct 15, 2026On the horizon
Canada 6-month pause on manufacturing input tariffs expires (~estimated)
Canadian retaliatory tariffs on US manufacturing inputs resume; supply chain relief window closes
🤝
Nov 10, 2026On the horizon
US-China Trade Truce Extension Expires
Current one-year truce (negotiated November 2025) expires; extension under discussion post-Xi summit but not yet agreed
Dec 31, 2026On the horizon
EU Steel/Aluminum Tariff Threshold Deadline (Turnberry Safeguard)
If ratified, EU Commission can suspend the Turnberry agreement if US fails to reduce steel/aluminum derivative tariffs below 15% by this date
🪵
Jan 1, 2027On the horizon
Timber/Lumber tariff increases to 30% (furniture) and 50% (cabinets/vanities) effective – Trump paused this in Dec 2025 until 2027
Furniture and kitchen cabinet supply costs surge; housing/renovation sector affected
🔧
Dec 31, 2027On the horizon
Section 232 Metal Tariffs Industrial Equipment Rate Expires
15% transitional rate on metal-intensive industrial/electrical equipment expires; rates likely revert to 25% or higher.
⏰
Mar 31, 2028On the horizon
EU Parliament sunset clause triggers (if included in final EU-US deal)
Potential termination of EU-US tariff agreement unless renewed; mirror deadline to Turnberry agreement renegotiation window.
💊
Apr 2, 2030On the horizon
Pharmaceutical Onshoring Escalation Cliff
Companies with onshoring agreements currently pay 20% tariff; rate escalates to 100% on April 2, 2030 if onshoring pledge not met.
Timeline
📜 How We Got Here

The Escalation Timeline

14 months of tariff escalation, deals and legal battles. Scroll or tap any event for details.

📊2026-06-02
USTR Proposes Section 301 Forced Labor Tariffs on 60 Countries
🌎2026-06-01
USTR Proposes 25% Section 301 Tariff on Brazil
🤝2026-06-05
Canada-US Trade Talks Show 'Some Progress' on Forced Labor Rules
⚙️2026-06-08
Section 232 Tariff Adjustments on Agricultural and Industrial Equipment Effective
🇻🇳2026-05-29
USTR Initiates Section 301 Investigation into Vietnam IP Protection and Enforcement
🍄2026-05-18
US Imposes Countervailing Duties on Canadian Fresh Mushrooms
⚖️2026-05-12
Federal Circuit Issues Administrative Stay on Section 122 Injunction
⚖️2026-05-07
Court of International Trade Rules Section 122 Tariffs Unlawful (2-1 Decision)
📋2026-05-06
USTR Begins Four-Year Review of China Section 301 Tariffs
💰2026-04-20
CBP Launches CAPE System for IEEPA Refund Processing
💊2026-04-02
Trump Proclaims 100% Section 232 Tariffs on Pharmaceuticals
🔍2026-03-12
USTR Launches Section 301 Investigations on 60 Economies (Forced Labor)
🏭2026-03-11
USTR Launches Section 301 Investigations on 16 Economies (Overcapacity)
📈2026-02-24
Section 122 Tariffs Take Effect at 10% Global (15% Announced Feb 21, Never Formally Proclaimed)
🏛️2026-02-20
Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs (6-3 Decision)
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