Basket of Tariffs™
What Canadians Pay Extra
The same 8 everyday items, before and after tariffs
Before
C$233.73
After
C$307.25
- US-made circular saw+C$32.50
- US-made steel rebar (bundle)+C$21.00
- US-made box of steel screws+C$7.00
TariffCharts.com
Updated October 6, 2026
This week · October 6, 2026
Trump says he's in no rush to restart Canada talks as IEEPA refund Phase 3 opens
What Canadian exports pay at the US border today, what changes next, and what it costs a household.
Breaking · Oct 6Trump said on October 6 that he was in no rush to resume trade talks with Canada, which have been suspended since August 21.
Breaking · Oct 6CBP opened Phase 3 of IEEPA tariff refunds on October 6 for liquidated entries the trade court has ordered reliquidated (court plaintiffs).
In effect · Sept 29US import bans on packaged Canadian alcohol, whey products and motorcycles over 800cc have applied since 12:01 a.m. ET on September 29, 2026.
What a Canadian export pays at the US border
Additional US tariff by type of good, as of October 6, 2026
CUSMA-qualifying goodsUnless Section 232 or 338 applies
0%Goods that don't qualify for CUSMASection 301 forced-labor tariff
10%Autos, non-US contentSection 232; CUSMA-qualifying parts pay nothing
25%Softwood lumber10% Section 232 + 35.16% AD/CVD for most firms
45%Steel and aluminum mill productsSection 232; products made from them 25%
50%Goods on Section 338 listsNo CUSMA exemption
50%Some steel and aluminum structural productsSections 232 and 338 stacked
75%Packaged alcohol, whey products, motorcycles over 800ccImport ban, Section 338
Ban~US$872.3B
Two-Way Trade
Goods and services, 2025 · USTR
~80.2%
Claim CUSMA
Share of imports from Canada and Mexico, Jul 2026 · Penn Wharton
~C$250/yr
At the Checkout
Families with kids; under C$170 without · counter-tariffs · Tombe
~C$1,700–3,100/yr
Lost Income per Household
A year by 2029–30 · derived from PBO and Finance Canada; method under The Data
~US$122B
IEEPA Refunds Sent to Treasury
Of US$166B owed, as of Sep 2026 · CBP
Key dates
- Oct 8EU-China trade talks in Beijing: Šefčovič meets Wang (October 8–9)
- Oct 15EU leaders' summit: Commission to present the outcome of its China talks
- Oct 28Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve rate decisions
- Nov 1EU product identifiers required for goods sold online to EU consumers
+31.5%
Editor's noteWeek of October 6, 2026
No rush on talks: the Canada-US standoff hardens into the status quo
President Trump said on October 6, 2026 that he was in no rush to resume trade talks with Canada, the clearest signal yet that the current measures are not a short-term bargaining position. Talks have been suspended since PM Carney walked away on the evening of August 21, and Trump's earlier remarks that a deal could come 'fairly soon' (September 12) and that 'a deal will be made but it's gonna be fair' (September 28) have not been followed by any scheduled meeting. The October 6 comment cools those signals. For exporters, the practical reading is that the rules now in force are the ones to plan around for the coming months.
Independent analysis
Legal status
What’s legally behind today’s tariffs
LawWhat it coversStatusWatch
Section 232Steel, aluminum, copper, autos, lumber, furniture, pharma, some chips and more. In force; unaffected by the Feb 2026 Supreme Court ruling.In forceWatch: Broader Phase 2 semiconductor tariffs
Section 301 — forced laborMost goods from 60 economies at 10% or 12.5%; CUSMA-qualifying goods exempt. In force since Jul 24, 2026, with no end date.In forceWatch: Court challenges
Section 301 — China2018–19 lists at 7.5% or 25%; EVs 100%. In force.In forceWatch: Reported 7.5% overcapacity add-on; no USTR finding yet
Section 301 — Brazil25% on most Brazilian goods, with product exemptions. In force since Jul 22, 2026, with no end date.In forceWatch: Changes to the exemption list
Section 338 — Canada50% on listed Canadian goods (about US$20B / C$27.6B at launch); no CUSMA exemption. In force since Aug 22, 2026; stacks on Section 232 for 2 of its 3 lists since Sep 15; import bans on packaged alcohol, whey products and motorcycles over 800cc in effect from Sep 29, 2026.In forceWatch: Whether bans expand; Trump's 50% auto tariff threat for Jan 1, 2027
IEEPAFormer 'fentanyl' and 'reciprocal' tariffs. Struck down by the Supreme Court on Feb 20, 2026.EndedWatch: Refunds: CAPE Phase 3 opened Oct 6 for plaintiffs
Section 122Former 10% global surcharge. Expired Jul 24, 2026.EndedWatch: Refunds, ordered only for 3 named plaintiffs, are on hold pending appeal
If you paid IEEPA tariffs: file a CAPE Declaration in CBP’s ACE portal and register for ACH refunds. As of September 11, 2026, CBP's CAPE portal had accepted about $134.7B in IEEPA refund claims and sent about $122B to Treasury for payment; about $1.3B is held up because importers haven't registered for ACH refunds. Phase 3 opened October 6, 2026 for court plaintiffs only; importers who didn't sue and whose entries are past the 180-day protest window have no refund route while the Federal Circuit appeal continues.
Legal docket
Next legal deadlines
- Nov 8, 2026USITC Section 338(g) comment requestUS International Trade Commission (USITC)Active
- Nov 17, 2026Canadian fresh mushroomsUS Department of Commerce / USITCActive
- Dec 31, 2026EU-US reciprocal tariff dealExecutive / Council of the EUActive
- Feb 9, 2027Section 232 unmanned aircraft systemsExecutive / Commerce DeptActive
- Dec 31, 2027Section 232 steel/aluminum derivativesExecutive/Commerce DeptActive
Scenario modeler · Canada-US Reviewed weekly
What happens next?
Four scenarios for Canada-US trade over the next three to six months, with our editorial estimate of how likely each is.
Now
Status quo holds
What's in force now continues: 50% Section 338 tariffs on listed Canadian goods, import bans on packaged alcohol, whey products and motorcycles over 800cc now in effect from September 29, the 10% Section 301 tariff on goods that don't qualify for CUSMA and Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos. Section 338 and Section 232 duties stack on two of the three Section 338 lists since September 15. Canada keeps its September 8 counter-tariffs.
Why this scenario
The Section 338 duties and import bans continue until the President changes them by proclamation, and the Section 301 forced-labor tariff has no expiry.
Our estimate55%↑ +5 pts
Trump said on October 6 he was in no rush to resume talks with Canada, so the bans and tariffs in force since September look set to continue for the next three to six months.
Reviewed October 6, 2026
Section 338 (listed goods)
50%
Import bans
In effect Sep 29
Section 301 (non-CUSMA)
10%
Section 232 autos
25% (non-US content)
Canada's counter-tariffs
15–50%
Outlook
Open-ended duties; annual CUSMA reviews
Probabilities are TariffCharts' editorial estimate for the next three to six months, reviewed weekly against the news. They are not a model output; outcomes depend on negotiations, courts and presidential decisions.
How our estimates have moved
Status quo holdsCanada-US dealFurther escalationCourts step in
Dates to Watch
What's Coming Next
Key deadlines that will reshape the tariff landscape. Subscribe so you don't miss them.
Oct 8, 2026On the horizon
EU-China trade talks in Beijing: Šefčovič meets Wang (October 8–9)
EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič meets his Chinese counterpart Wang in Beijing on October 8–9, 2026 to assess progress on rebalancing trade, ahead of the EU's October deadline for 'tangible progress' (South China Morning Post). The outcome could shape the emergency trade tools the Commission may propose in December.
Oct 15, 2026On the horizon
EU leaders' summit: Commission to present the outcome of its China talks
The European Commission is due to report to EU national leaders on its China negotiations on October 15, 2026 and seek their backing to propose new emergency trade tools in early December, which would allow fast import restrictions when dependency or overcapacity reaches a systemic threshold (South China Morning Post).
🏦
Oct 28, 2026On the horizon
Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve rate decisions
The Bank of Canada announces its policy rate at 9:45 a.m. ET on October 28, 2026, with its quarterly Monetary Policy Report. The Federal Reserve's policy committee meets October 27–28 and announces its decision that afternoon.
📋
Nov 1, 2026On the horizon
EU product identifiers required for goods sold online to EU consumers
From November 1, 2026, customs declarations for imported goods sold online to EU consumers must include product identifiers (voluntary since July 1). A €2-per-item customs handling fee on e-commerce goods is in a Commission draft; Dutch Customs says it applies from November 1.
🗳️
Nov 3, 2026On the horizon
US midterm elections
US midterm elections are held on November 3, 2026, the first Tuesday in November. Trump said on October 6, 2026 that he was in no rush to resume trade talks with Canada, which have been suspended since August 21.
📋
Nov 8, 2026On the horizon
USITC Section 338 public comment period closes
USITC asked on September 4, 2026 for comments on how it should carry out its general Section 338(g) duties. Comments close November 8, 2026 at 5:15 p.m. ET. The notice is not a case against Canada and does not set the Section 338 product lists.
🤝
Nov 10, 2026On the horizon
US-China trade truce was due to expire (US says it is extended to January)
The truce agreed in Busan in 2025 scaled back tariffs on both sides and suspended the rare earth export controls China announced in October 2025 (its April 2025 licensing stays). Treasury Secretary Bessent said September 23 it will be extended until January; Beijing had not confirmed it as of September 24.
🍄
Nov 17, 2026On the horizon
USITC final hearing on duties on Canadian fresh mushrooms
The USITC holds its final-phase hearing on November 17, 2026 in the anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations of fresh mushrooms from Canada. Commerce's final anti-dumping determination is due in late November, with the countervailing duty final aligned to it.
Nov 18, 2026On the horizon
APEC leaders meet in Shenzhen, China (November 18–19)
APEC economic leaders meet in Shenzhen on November 18–19, 2026, with the APEC CEO Summit on November 17–18. Canada, the US and China are all APEC members. It comes a week after November 10, when the US-China trade truce was due to expire.
🏦
Dec 9, 2026On the horizon
Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve rate decisions
The Bank of Canada announces its last policy rate decision of 2026 at 9:45 a.m. ET on December 9. The Federal Reserve's policy committee meets December 8–9 and announces its decision that afternoon, with new economic projections.
🌐
Dec 14, 2026On the horizon
G20 leaders' summit at Trump National Doral Miami (December 14–15)
The US holds the G20 presidency in 2026, and the leaders' summit is planned for December 14–15 at Trump National Doral Miami. Canada, the US, China and the EU are all G20 members.
Dec 31, 2026On the horizon
EU can suspend its steel and aluminum concessions to the US
Regulation (EU) 2026/1455 lets the Commission suspend the EU's steel and aluminum tariff concessions to the US if, by December 31, 2026, the US still charges more than 15% on EU steel and aluminum derivative products. EU goods on the US 25% derivatives list have paid 15% all-in since June 8, 2026 (Proclamation 11032).
🚗
Jan 1, 2027On the horizon
Threatened: 50% US tariff on Canadian cars, trucks and auto parts
President Trump said on August 24, 2026 that tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks and auto parts would double to 50% from January 1, 2027. It is a threat only: no proclamation had been published as of September 23. The current Section 232 rate is 25%; CUSMA-qualifying vehicles pay it only on their non-US content, and CUSMA-qualifying parts pay nothing.
🪵
Jan 1, 2027On the horizon
US tariff on upholstered furniture rises to 30%, cabinets and vanities to 50%
The Section 232 increases were delayed from January 1, 2026 to January 1, 2027 (Proclamation 11000). Until then both pay 25%. The UK stays capped at 10%, and the EU and Japan at 15% all-in.
🚁
Feb 9, 2027On the horizon
Section 232 UAS component tariffs take effect
A 25% tariff on listed UAS components (drone parts, subsystems) takes effect February 9, 2027 — 180 days after the August 13, 2026 proclamation. Rate applies to components not covered by the September 3, 2026 UAS tariff. Affects domestic drone manufacturers dependent on foreign components.
🔧
Dec 31, 2027On the horizon
Section 232 15% rate on industrial equipment ends
The 15% Section 232 rate on industrial, grid and farm equipment and residential HVAC runs through December 31, 2027 (Proclamations 11021 and 11032) unless extended.
📋
Jul 1, 2028On the horizon
EU €3 per-item duty on small parcels ends
The temporary €3 duty on items in parcels worth up to €150 applies until July 1, 2028, when the EU Customs Data Hub for e-commerce is due to start (European Commission). After that, normal EU duties are expected to apply, possibly through a simplified set of rate brackets proposed in the EU customs reform.
⏰
Dec 31, 2029On the horizon
EU-US deal regulation expires (EU sunset clause)
EU Regulation 2026/1455 implementing the deal applies until December 31, 2029 unless renewed. (Parliament had proposed March 31, 2028; the final text uses end-2029.)
💊
Apr 2, 2030On the horizon
Pharmaceutical onshoring escalation cliff
Companies with onshoring agreements currently pay 20% tariff; rate escalates to 100% on April 2, 2030 if onshoring pledge not met
🤝
Jul 1, 2036On the horizon
CUSMA annual review cycle — potential full expiry
USTR Greer confirmed July 1, 2026 that the Trump administration does not agree to renew CUSMA for a 16-year extension to 2042. Agreement now in annual review mode through its current expiry date of July 2036. If no extension agreed by July 2036, deal expires and three countries revert to MFN tariffs. Adds uncertainty to North American supply chains; bilateral negotiation likely to intensify. CUSMA's duty exemption does not cover goods on the Section 338 lists.
How We Got Here
The Escalation Timeline
19 months of tariff escalation, deals and legal battles. Scroll or tap any event for details.
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