Updated April 14, 2026Post-SCOTUS

TariffCharts.com

Viewing: Canada Perspective

How tariffs affect Canadian businesses and consumers

$700B+
Annual Two-Way Trade
US-Canada goods & services
~88%
CUSMA Exemption Rate
est. share of Canadian imports claiming duty-free
$1,700โ€“$2,000
Cost to Cdn Households/yr
pre-SCOTUS est.; actual 2026 cost lower with IEEPA struck down
~$166B
IEEPA Refunds Owed
53M entries, 333K importers; CAPE: Portal 85%, Processing 60%, Review 80%, Refund 75% (Mar 30)
๐Ÿ“ Editor's NoteWeek of April 14, 2026

Trump Restructures Metals Tariffs to 50% Full Value; Pharmaceutical and Court Challenges Reshape Trade Landscape

The April 2 tariff restructuring confirms Trump's willingness to completely rewrite the rules mid-stream when existing frameworks prove unwieldy. The metals overhaul replaces the byzantine metal-content methodology with clean full-value tiers that businesses can actually calculate. The 50% rate on Annex I-A primary metals like steel and aluminum stays brutal, but the 25% on derivatives offers some relief from the previous 50% rate, while the 15% cap on industrial equipment through 2027 creates breathing room for manufacturers. Most significantly, products with 15% or less metal content are now exempt entirely โ€” a major win for electronics and consumer goods companies that fought the derivative expansions.

The pharmaceutical tariff announcement on the same day represents Trump's most aggressive healthcare pricing intervention to date. A 100% baseline rate on patented drugs and APIs starting this summer is designed to force immediate onshoring conversations, with the 20% rate for companies with approved plans serving as both carrot and stick. The EU, Japan, South Korea and Switzerland securing 15% rates reflects their pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity and trade leverage. The UK's 10% rate and the 0% MFN pricing deals through January 2029 create a complex tiered system that rewards both domestic investment and price concessions.

Court challenges are now the critical wild card. The three-judge CIT panel that heard Section 122 arguments on April 10 could invalidate the entire 10% baseline tariff that underpins the current system. With Section 122's 150-day limit expiring July 24, the administration is racing to complete Section 301 investigations on 76 countries before the legal and statutory clocks run out simultaneously. Meanwhile, Canada's April 15 announcement of a 6-month pause on retaliatory manufacturing input tariffs provides temporary supply chain relief, but the October expiration date ensures this remains a time-limited reprieve.

The EU's Turnberry deal faces its first real test with the new metals structure. Parliament's 417-154 approval included a sunrise clause requiring US derivative tariffs at 15% or below before EU concessions activate. Trump's 25% derivative rate beats the previous 50% but still falls short of the EU's threshold. With trilogue negotiations between Parliament and member states beginning this week, both sides are calculating whether 25% is close enough to declare victory or grounds to demand further US concessions. The answer will determine whether the framework deal becomes a model for other relationships or another casualty of escalating trade tensions.

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General estimates as of April 14, 2026. Not legal/financial advice.
โš–๏ธ
SCOTUS Ruling โ€” February 20, 2026 ยท Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump
The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. All IEEPA tariffs were terminated Feb 24, 2026. The administration pivoted to a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (15% announced Feb 21 but NO formal proclamation issued as of Mar 24 โ€” rate remains 10%; expires Jul 24, 2026). CUSMA-compliant goods are exempt. Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber are unaffected by the ruling. Section 122 is under legal challenge (24-state lawsuit + Burlap and Barrel suit filed Mar 5โ€“9; no injunction as of Mar 24; suits argue Section 122 misapplied to trade deficits and violates nondelegation doctrine). Refund litigation for approximately $166 billion in collected IEEPA duties is ongoing โ€” 53M entries, 333K importers affected. CAPE system components as of Mar 30: Portal 85%, Mass Processing 60%, Review/Liquidation 80%, Refund 75%. Over 3,000 lawsuits filed at CIT. Next hearing Mar 31. Launch expected late April 2026.
๐Ÿ“œ How We Got Here

The Escalation Timeline

14 months of tariff escalation, deals and legal battles. Scroll or tap any event for details.

โš–๏ธApr 10, 2026
Three-Judge CIT Panel Hears Section 122 Challenges
๐Ÿ”งApr 6, 2026
Section 232 Metals Overhaul Takes Effect
๐Ÿ”งApr 2, 2026
Section 232 Metals Overhaul
๐Ÿ’ŠApr 2, 2026
100% Pharma Tariff Announced
๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธMar 26, 2026
EU Parliament Approves Turnberry Deal 417-154-71
๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธMar 19, 2026
EU Parliament Committee Approves Deal with Safeguards
๐ŸMar 18, 2026
USTR: Canada Lagging Behind Mexico
๐Ÿ“…Mar 16, 2026
Trump Requests Delay of Beijing Summit
๐ŸคMar 15โ€“16, 2026
Bessent-He Paris Talks
๐Ÿ”Mar 11โ€“12, 2026
Section 301 Probes โ€” 76 Countries
๐ŸMar 6, 2026
Canada-US Talks Resume After 4-Month Freeze
๐Ÿ“‹Mar 5โ€“9, 2026
Legal Challenges Filed
๐Ÿ”„Feb 24, 2026
Section 122 Replaces IEEPA
โš–๏ธFeb 20, 2026
SCOTUS Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs
๐Ÿ”ฉDec 2025
Steel Derivatives โ€” 407 Products at 50%
โš™๏ธDec 2025
China Rare Earth Export Ban
๐ŸชตOct 2025
Lumber & Derivative Tariffs
โ„๏ธOct 2025
Canada-US Talks Suspended
๐Ÿš˜Sep 2025
Japan Auto Deal โ€” 15%
๐Ÿ•Š๏ธSep 2025
Canada Drops Most Counter-Tariffs
๐Ÿ“ˆAug 2025
IEEPA Escalated to 35% on Canada
๐ŸคJul 2025
EU-US Framework Deal
๐Ÿ—๏ธJun 2025
Steel & Aluminum Hit 50%
๐ŸคJun 2025
US-China Deal โ€” Pause at ~20%
๐Ÿ‰May 2025
Section 301 Expansion on China
๐Ÿš—Apr 3, 2025
Auto Tariffs Take Effect
๐Ÿ’ฅApr 2, 2025
"Liberation Day" Tariffs
๐ŸทMar 25, 2025
Ontario Bans US Alcohol
๐Ÿ”ฅMar 4, 2025
IEEPA Tariffs Take Effect
๐Ÿ“œFeb 1, 2025
IEEPA Tariffs Signed
๐Ÿ“… Dates to Watch

What's Coming Next

Key deadlines that will reshape the tariff landscape. Subscribe so you don't miss them.

๐Ÿ”
Apr 15, 2026Critical deadline
Public comment deadline for Section 301 investigations (Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, EU, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Norway, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam)
Critical for shaping potential Section 301 tariffs post-July 24 Section 122 expiration
๐Ÿ“‹
Apr 28, 2026Critical deadline
Public hearing on Section 301 investigations (same countries/scope)
Final opportunity for business testimony before USTR determination
๐Ÿ”ง
May 1, 2026Coming up
Rolling BIS Inclusions Cycle opens for Section 232 metals derivative products (two-week window)
Last opportunity to petition for inclusion/exclusion of products under new metals tariff structure before next cycle in September
๐Ÿ“‹
May 5, 2026Coming up
Section 301 Hearing โ€” Overcapacity
Public hearing on USTR's manufacturing overcapacity investigation covering 16 economies including China, EU, Mexico and Japan.
๐Ÿค
Mid-May 2026Coming up
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit (Delayed)
Originally scheduled Mar 31โ€“Apr 2. Delayed 5โ€“6 weeks due to Iran conflict. Expected mid-May 2026. Focus: trade truce extension (expires Nov 2026), soybean/Boeing purchases, rare earth export controls, technology restrictions.
๐Ÿ“‹
Jul 1, 2026On the horizon
Pharma Onshoring Report Due / CUSMA Trilateral Review
Commerce and HHS must report to President on pharma onshoring negotiations. Also target date for full US-Canada-Mexico CUSMA review. US-Mexico bilateral talks advancing; Canada-US talks resumed Mar 6 but USTR stated Mar 18 Canada is lagging behind Mexico.
โœˆ๏ธ
Jul 2026On the horizon
Boeing-Airbus Truce Expires
EU-US aircraft tariff truce. If not renewed, tariffs resume on both sides. Framework deal status matters here.
โฐ
Jul 24, 2026Critical deadline
Section 122 Expires / Section 301 Target - CRITICAL DEADLINE
If CIT rules Section 122 invalid, entire baseline tariff collapses unless Section 301 investigations conclude by this date. Supply chain regime reverts to Section 232 + bilateral deals only
๐Ÿ’Š
Jul 31, 2026Critical deadline
Pharmaceutical Section 232 tariffs take effect for Annex III companies (100% or 20% depending on onshoring status)
Drug prices spike for companies without onshoring plans or trade agreements
๐Ÿ’Š
Sep 29, 2026Critical deadline
Pharmaceutical Section 232 tariffs take effect for all other companies (100% unless exempted)
Broad pharma tariff implementation for non-Annex III companies
๐Ÿ
Oct 15, 2026On the horizon
Canada 6-month pause on manufacturing input tariffs expires (~estimated)
Canadian retaliatory tariffs on US manufacturing inputs resume; supply chain relief window closes
๐Ÿชต
Jan 1, 2027On the horizon
Timber/Lumber tariff increases to 30% (furniture) and 50% (cabinets/vanities) effective โ€“ Trump paused this in Dec 2025 until 2027
Furniture and kitchen cabinet supply costs surge; housing/renovation sector affected
Signature Charts

The Tariff Story, Visualized

Original data visualizations you won't find anywhere else. Updated weekly.

๐Ÿ›’ Basket of Tariffsโ„ข

What Canadians Pay Extra โ€” 10 familiar items, one number.

You're shopping in Canada. These are the price increases you see on shelves and sticker prices.

+26.5%
Tariff Premium
Tariff Premium (%)
Total basket: $225.00 โ†’ $284.56 โ€” $59.56 more for the same 10 items. Switch to $ view to see absolute prices.
๐Ÿ”ฎ Scenario Modeler

What Happens Next?

Four scenarios based on current policy trajectories, legal proceedings and statutory deadlines. Each projection shows its basis and methodology.

NowCurrent State

Section 122 at 10%, SCOTUS ruling in effect, Sec 232 tariffs unchanged, Section 301 probes underway but no outcomes yet.

Why this scenario
This is not a projection โ€” it reflects the tariff rates currently in effect as of the last site update.
Household Cost
$880/mo
CUSMA Exemption
~88%
Sec 122 Rate
10%
Sec 232 Steel
50%
IEEPA Refunds
$166B pending
Outlook
Stable but time-limited
How we calculated (Canada)
Yale Budget Lab household model adapted for post-SCOTUS Section 122 rates. CUSMA exemption rate from CBSA trade statistics.
Projections based on current policy trajectories, statutory deadlines and published economic models (Yale Budget Lab, Penn Wharton, Tax Foundation, ING). Actual outcomes depend on legislative, judicial and diplomatic developments. Not financial advice.
๐Ÿญ Sector Explorer

Tariff Rates by Industry

Pick a sector to see how tariffs compare across all four regions. Use the product search above for specific items.

๐Ÿ—๏ธ

Steel & Aluminum

Includes: rebar, beams, sheet metal, foil, cans, gutters, wiring, HVAC ductwork
CanadaYou
50%
Sec 232No CUSMA exemption
United States
50%
Sec 232Global โ€” no trade agreement exemptions
European Union
50%
Sec 232Not covered by framework deal. EU retaliates at 25%
Asia-Pacific
50%
Sec 232 + 301China stacks Sec 301 on top. Japan, Korea at 50% too
Consumer Impact
Adds $1,500โ€“3,000 to a new home. Every construction project, appliance and vehicle is affected.
What to Watch
Sec 232 has no expiry. No deal has exempted metals.
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Canada

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๐Ÿš—

Buying a Car

Pickup truck (cross-border built)
+$5,000โ€“$8,000โ–พ
Toyota RAV4 / Lexus (built in Ontario)
+$3,000โ€“$7,000โ–พ
Jeep (various assembly locations)
+$2,000โ€“$6,000โ–พ
Used vehicles
+$1,500โ€“$3,000โ–พ
Car repairs & insurance
+5โ€“11%/yearโ–พ
๐Ÿ’ก Bottom Line
Average new vehicle ~$6,000 more (JD Power). Check where your model is assembled โ€” vehicles built entirely within one country are least affected.
Why CUSMA Compliance Matters More Than Ever
With ~88% of Canadian exports now claiming CUSMA exemption (up from ~55% pre-tariffs), the trade agreement has become the single most important shield for Canadian exporters. CUSMA-compliant goods are exempt from the new Section 122 tariffs and were exempt from IEEPA tariffs. However, Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber have no CUSMA exemption. Canada-US bilateral trade talks resumed March 6, 2026 (LeBlanc-Greer meeting in Washington) after a four-month suspension, but USTR Greer stated March 18 that Canada is lagging behind Mexico in USMCA negotiations. No formal Canadian negotiation process has been announced. The CUSMA review on July 1, 2026 will be among the most consequential trade negotiations in decades.
Full Reference

Tariff Data

Every active measure. Searchable and sortable.

US Tariffs on Canadian Exports

What Canadian goods face entering the US

SectorRateAuthorityCUSMAEffectiveDetails
Steel50%Sec 232โœ—Jun '25No CUSMA exemption. All steel products.
Aluminum50%Sec 232โœ—Jun '25Includes derivative products (cans, foil, extrusions).
Automobiles25%Sec 232โœ“Apr '25US-content of CUSMA vehicles exempt. Lexus RX/NX, RAV4 affected.
Auto Parts25%Sec 232โœ“May '25Parts cross borders multiple times during assembly.
Softwood Lumber10%Sec 232โœ—Oct '25On top of existing AD/CVD duties (8โ€“20%). No CUSMA exemption.
Cabinets & Vanities25%Sec 232โœ—Oct '2550% increase delayed to Jan 2027.
Furniture25%Sec 232โœ—Oct '2530% increase delayed to Jan 2027.
Heavy-Duty Vehicles25%Sec 232โœ“Nov '25Buses 10%. CUSMA US content exempt.
Steel Derivatives25-50Sec 232โœ—Apr '26Apr 2 overhaul: primary metal derivatives 50% (Annex I-A), other derivatives 25% (Annex I-B) on full customs value. Industrial/grid equipment 15% through 2027. Products โ‰ค15% metal exempt. Replaces prior 50% on metal content.
Non-CUSMA Goods10%Sec 122โœ“Feb '26Post-SCOTUS replacement. 15% announced Feb 21 but NO formal proclamation issued as of Mar 24 โ€” rate remains 10%. Expires Jul 24, 2026. Under legal challenge (24-state lawsuit + Burlap and Barrel suit filed Mar 5โ€“9; no injunction granted; suits argue misapplication to trade deficits and nondelegation). CUSMA exempt.
Energy & Potash10%Sec 122โœ“Feb '26CUSMA-compliant shipments exempt. Expires Jul 24, 2026.
Last verified: April 14, 2026
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Not legal/financial advice ยท April 14, 2026 ยท Canadian editorial: TariffWars.ca โ†’
Follow us:๐•@TariffCharts|๐Ÿ Canadian coverage: TariffWars.ca โ†’