Updated April 22, 2026Post-SCOTUS

TariffCharts.com

Viewing: Canada Perspective

How tariffs affect Canadian businesses and consumers

$700B+
Annual Two-Way Trade
US-Canada goods & services
~88%
CUSMA Exemption Rate
est. share of Canadian imports claiming duty-free
$1,700โ€“$2,000
Cost to Cdn Households/yr
pre-SCOTUS est.; actual 2026 cost lower with IEEPA struck down
~$166B
IEEPA Refunds Owed
53M entries, 333K importers; CAPE: Portal 85%, Processing 60%, Review 80%, Refund 75% (Mar 30)
๐Ÿ“ Editor's NoteWeek of April 22, 2026

Pharma 100% tariffs & metals restructuring take effect; IEEPA refund portal opens April 20

The April 2 proclamations marking Trump's most sweeping trade restructuring since taking office became fully operational this week. The metals tariff overhaul shifted from the previous byzantine metal-content calculations to clean full-value rates: 50% on primary metals, 25% on derivatives, and a temporary 15% cap on industrial equipment through 2027. The pharmaceutical tariff announcement simultaneously introduced a 100% baseline rate on patented drugs with a complex tier system offering preferential treatment to trade partners and companies with onshoring commitments. Both changes reflect lessons learned from 18 months of tariff implementation complexity.

The CAPE portal launch on April 20 represents the administration's most significant IEEPA refund operation to date, with CBS News reporting approximately 56,000 registered importers out of roughly 300,000 eligible - an 18.7% participation rate that aligns with court filing estimates of around 20%. The electronic ACH-only refund system and requirement for active CAPE Declaration filing create administrative hurdles that may explain the modest uptake rate. With the portal now operational, importers face a critical decision window as the two-year claim deadline approaches for many IEEPA-era payments.

Canada's April 8 publication of its second-year remission order through the Canada Gazette provides temporary relief for Canadian importers while maintaining pressure on the bilateral negotiating front. The order's extension from April 9, 2026 through April 8, 2027 ensures continuity but the two-year claim window creates urgency for businesses managing cross-border supply chains. The timing coincides with renewed trilogue negotiations in the EU, where Parliament's March 26 vote included suspension and sunrise clauses that could derail the framework agreement if US metals tariff concessions prove insufficient.

The Section 122 temporary tariff now faces a critical three-month window as its July 24 statutory expiration approaches simultaneously with potential CIT invalidation. The administration's race to complete Section 301 investigations on 76 countries before this dual deadline represents the most complex trade policy transition in decades. Success would create a permanent country-specific tariff architecture; failure could collapse the entire baseline 10% system and revert to a patchwork of Section 232 actions and bilateral deals. The pharmaceutical and metals restructuring may prove prescient if they provide operational frameworks that survive legal and statutory challenges to the broader tariff regime.

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General estimates as of April 22, 2026. Not legal/financial advice.
โš–๏ธ
SCOTUS Ruling โ€” February 20, 2026 ยท Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump
The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. All IEEPA tariffs were terminated Feb 24, 2026. The administration pivoted to a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (15% announced Feb 21 but NO formal proclamation issued as of Mar 24 โ€” rate remains 10%; expires Jul 24, 2026). CUSMA-compliant goods are exempt. Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber are unaffected by the ruling. Section 122 is under legal challenge (24-state lawsuit + Burlap and Barrel suit filed Mar 5โ€“9; no injunction as of Mar 24; suits argue Section 122 misapplied to trade deficits and violates nondelegation doctrine). Refund litigation for approximately $166 billion in collected IEEPA duties is ongoing โ€” 53M entries, 333K importers affected. CAPE system components as of Mar 30: Portal 85%, Mass Processing 60%, Review/Liquidation 80%, Refund 75%. Over 3,000 lawsuits filed at CIT. Next hearing Mar 31. Launch expected late April 2026.
๐Ÿ“œ How We Got Here

The Escalation Timeline

14 months of tariff escalation, deals and legal battles. Scroll or tap any event for details.

๐Ÿ’ปApr 20, 2026
CAPE Refund Portal Launches
๐ŸApr 8, 2026
Canada Extends Remission Order
๐Ÿ”งApr 6, 2026
Restructured Metals & Pharma Tariffs Take Effect
โš–๏ธApr 10, 2026
Three-Judge CIT Panel Hears Section 122 Challenges
๐Ÿ”งApr 6, 2026
Section 232 Metals Overhaul Takes Effect
๐Ÿ”งApr 2, 2026
Section 232 Metals Overhaul
๐Ÿ’ŠApr 2, 2026
100% Pharma Tariff Announced
๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธMar 26, 2026
EU Parliament Approves Turnberry Deal 417-154-71
๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธMar 19, 2026
EU Parliament Committee Approves Deal with Safeguards
๐ŸMar 18, 2026
USTR: Canada Lagging Behind Mexico
๐Ÿ“…Mar 16, 2026
Trump Requests Delay of Beijing Summit
๐ŸคMar 15โ€“16, 2026
Bessent-He Paris Talks
๐Ÿ”Mar 11โ€“12, 2026
Section 301 Probes โ€” 76 Countries
๐ŸMar 6, 2026
Canada-US Talks Resume After 4-Month Freeze
๐Ÿ“‹Mar 5โ€“9, 2026
Legal Challenges Filed
๐Ÿ”„Feb 24, 2026
Section 122 Replaces IEEPA
โš–๏ธFeb 20, 2026
SCOTUS Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs
๐Ÿ”ฉDec 2025
Steel Derivatives โ€” 407 Products at 50%
โš™๏ธDec 2025
China Rare Earth Export Ban
๐ŸชตOct 2025
Lumber & Derivative Tariffs
โ„๏ธOct 2025
Canada-US Talks Suspended
๐Ÿš˜Sep 2025
Japan Auto Deal โ€” 15%
๐Ÿ•Š๏ธSep 2025
Canada Drops Most Counter-Tariffs
๐Ÿ“ˆAug 2025
IEEPA Escalated to 35% on Canada
๐ŸคJul 2025
EU-US Framework Deal
๐Ÿ—๏ธJun 2025
Steel & Aluminum Hit 50%
๐ŸคJun 2025
US-China Deal โ€” Pause at ~20%
๐Ÿ‰May 2025
Section 301 Expansion on China
๐Ÿš—Apr 3, 2025
Auto Tariffs Take Effect
๐Ÿ’ฅApr 2, 2025
"Liberation Day" Tariffs
๐ŸทMar 25, 2025
Ontario Bans US Alcohol
๐Ÿ”ฅMar 4, 2025
IEEPA Tariffs Take Effect
๐Ÿ“œFeb 1, 2025
IEEPA Tariffs Signed
๐Ÿ“… Dates to Watch

What's Coming Next

Key deadlines that will reshape the tariff landscape. Subscribe so you don't miss them.

๐Ÿ“‹
Apr 28, 2026Critical deadline
Section 301 Forced Labor Investigation Hearings
USTR hearings on 60 Section 301 investigations into forced labor bans. Comments due April 15 (passed). Determinations likely by summer; could trigger new tariffs on non-compliant countries (India, Southeast Asia, China).
๐Ÿ”ง
May 1, 2026Coming up
Section 301 Structural Excess Capacity Investigations Due for Determination
USTR initiated 15-country Section 301 investigations into excess capacity (China, EU, Japan, Korea, India, etc.) on March 11. Hearings scheduled April 28. Determinations expected May-June; could trigger 10-25% tariffs on affected sectors (autos, semiconductors, machinery, aluminum).
๐Ÿ“‹
May 5, 2026Coming up
Section 301 Hearing โ€” Overcapacity
Public hearing on USTR's manufacturing overcapacity investigation covering 16 economies including China, EU, Mexico and Japan.
๐Ÿค
Mid-May 2026Coming up
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit (Delayed)
Originally scheduled Mar 31โ€“Apr 2. Delayed 5โ€“6 weeks due to Iran conflict. Expected mid-May 2026. Focus: trade truce extension (expires Nov 2026), soybean/Boeing purchases, rare earth export controls, technology restrictions.
๐Ÿ“‹
Jul 1, 2026On the horizon
Expected USMCA/CUSMA Review Deadline
CUSMA review scheduled for July 1 conclusion (announced 2026). Review outcome will shape Canada-US auto, steel, aluminum tariff outcomes and Section 232 exemption scope.
โœˆ๏ธ
Jul 2026On the horizon
Boeing-Airbus Truce Expires
EU-US aircraft tariff truce. If not renewed, tariffs resume on both sides. Framework deal status matters here.
โฐ
Jul 24, 2026Critical deadline
Section 122 Temporary Tariff Expires
10% ad valorem surcharge authorized under Section 122 reaches 150-day statutory maximum and expires unless Congress extends. Administration plans to have Section 301 actions in place by early July to avoid gap. High uncertainty if Section 301 implementation delayed.
๐Ÿ’Š
Jul 31, 2026Critical deadline
Pharmaceutical Section 232 Tariffs Effective (Large Companies)
100% tariffs on patented pharmaceuticals take effect for large companies listed in Annex III; tiered rates for trade deal countries (15%, 10%, 20%, 0% by agreement status). Importing companies begin paying tariffs unless they have onshoring/MFN deals.
๐Ÿ’Š
Sep 29, 2026Critical deadline
Pharmaceutical Section 232 Tariffs Effective (Small Companies)
100% tariffs extend to smaller manufacturers not listed in Annex III. Full pharma tariff regime in place.
๐Ÿ
Oct 15, 2026On the horizon
Canada 6-month pause on manufacturing input tariffs expires (~estimated)
Canadian retaliatory tariffs on US manufacturing inputs resume; supply chain relief window closes
๐Ÿชต
Jan 1, 2027On the horizon
Timber/Lumber tariff increases to 30% (furniture) and 50% (cabinets/vanities) effective โ€“ Trump paused this in Dec 2025 until 2027
Furniture and kitchen cabinet supply costs surge; housing/renovation sector affected
Signature Charts

The Tariff Story, Visualized

Original data visualizations you won't find anywhere else. Updated weekly.

๐Ÿ›’ Basket of Tariffsโ„ข

What Canadians Pay Extra โ€” 10 familiar items, one number.

You're shopping in Canada. These are the price increases you see on shelves and sticker prices.

+26.5%
Tariff Premium
Tariff Premium (%)
Total basket: $225.00 โ†’ $284.56 โ€” $59.56 more for the same 10 items. Switch to $ view to see absolute prices.
๐Ÿ”ฎ Scenario Modeler

What Happens Next?

Four scenarios based on current policy trajectories, legal proceedings and statutory deadlines. Each projection shows its basis and methodology.

NowCurrent State

Section 122 at 10%, SCOTUS ruling in effect, Sec 232 tariffs unchanged, Section 301 probes underway but no outcomes yet.

Why this scenario
This is not a projection โ€” it reflects the tariff rates currently in effect as of the last site update.
Household Cost
$880/mo
CUSMA Exemption
~88%
Sec 122 Rate
10%
Sec 232 Steel
50%
IEEPA Refunds
$166B pending
Outlook
Stable but time-limited
How we calculated (Canada)
Yale Budget Lab household model adapted for post-SCOTUS Section 122 rates. CUSMA exemption rate from CBSA trade statistics.
Projections based on current policy trajectories, statutory deadlines and published economic models (Yale Budget Lab, Penn Wharton, Tax Foundation, ING). Actual outcomes depend on legislative, judicial and diplomatic developments. Not financial advice.
๐Ÿญ Sector Explorer

Tariff Rates by Industry

Pick a sector to see how tariffs compare across all four regions. Use the product search above for specific items.

๐Ÿ—๏ธ

Steel & Aluminum

Includes: rebar, beams, sheet metal, foil, cans, gutters, wiring, HVAC ductwork
CanadaYou
50%
Sec 232No CUSMA exemption
United States
50%
Sec 232Global โ€” no trade agreement exemptions
European Union
50%
Sec 232Not covered by framework deal. EU retaliates at 25%
Asia-Pacific
50%
Sec 232 + 301China stacks Sec 301 on top. Japan, Korea at 50% too
Consumer Impact
Adds $1,500โ€“3,000 to a new home. Every construction project, appliance and vehicle is affected.
What to Watch
Sec 232 has no expiry. No deal has exempted metals.
๐Ÿค–AI Tariff AssistantPowered by Claude

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Canada

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๐Ÿš—

Buying a Car

Pickup truck (cross-border built)
+$5,000โ€“$8,000โ–พ
Toyota RAV4 / Lexus (built in Ontario)
+$3,000โ€“$7,000โ–พ
Jeep (various assembly locations)
+$2,000โ€“$6,000โ–พ
Used vehicles
+$1,500โ€“$3,000โ–พ
Car repairs & insurance
+5โ€“11%/yearโ–พ
๐Ÿ’ก Bottom Line
Average new vehicle ~$6,000 more (JD Power). Check where your model is assembled โ€” vehicles built entirely within one country are least affected.
Why CUSMA Compliance Matters More Than Ever
With ~88% of Canadian exports now claiming CUSMA exemption (up from ~55% pre-tariffs), the trade agreement has become the single most important shield for Canadian exporters. CUSMA-compliant goods are exempt from the new Section 122 tariffs and were exempt from IEEPA tariffs. However, Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber have no CUSMA exemption. Canada-US bilateral trade talks resumed March 6, 2026 (LeBlanc-Greer meeting in Washington) after a four-month suspension, but USTR Greer stated March 18 that Canada is lagging behind Mexico in USMCA negotiations. No formal Canadian negotiation process has been announced. The CUSMA review on July 1, 2026 will be among the most consequential trade negotiations in decades.
Full Reference

Tariff Data

Every active measure. Searchable and sortable.

US Tariffs on Canadian Exports

What Canadian goods face entering the US

SectorRateAuthorityCUSMAEffectiveDetails
Steel50%Sec 232โœ—Jun '25No CUSMA exemption. All steel products.
Aluminum50%Sec 232โœ—Jun '25Includes derivative products (cans, foil, extrusions).
Automobiles25%Sec 232โœ“Apr '25US-content of CUSMA vehicles exempt. Lexus RX/NX, RAV4 affected.
Auto Parts25%Sec 232โœ“May '25Parts cross borders multiple times during assembly.
Softwood Lumber10%Sec 232โœ—Oct '25On top of existing AD/CVD duties (8โ€“20%). No CUSMA exemption.
Cabinets & Vanities25%Sec 232โœ—Oct '2550% increase delayed to Jan 2027.
Furniture25%Sec 232โœ—Oct '2530% increase delayed to Jan 2027.
Heavy-Duty Vehicles25%Sec 232โœ“Nov '25Buses 10%. CUSMA US content exempt.
Steel Derivatives25-50Sec 232โœ—Apr '26Apr 2 overhaul: primary metal derivatives 50% (Annex I-A), other derivatives 25% (Annex I-B) on full customs value. Industrial/grid equipment 15% through 2027. Products โ‰ค15% metal exempt. Replaces prior 50% on metal content.
Non-CUSMA Goods10%Sec 122โœ“Feb '26Post-SCOTUS replacement. 15% announced Feb 21 but NO formal proclamation issued as of Mar 24 โ€” rate remains 10%. Expires Jul 24, 2026. Under legal challenge (24-state lawsuit + Burlap and Barrel suit filed Mar 5โ€“9; no injunction granted; suits argue misapplication to trade deficits and nondelegation). CUSMA exempt.
Energy & Potash10%Sec 122โœ“Feb '26CUSMA-compliant shipments exempt. Expires Jul 24, 2026.
Last verified: April 22, 2026
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Not legal/financial advice ยท April 22, 2026 ยท Canadian editorial: TariffWars.ca โ†’
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